Much angry ink has been spilled to the effect that as U.S. Part of the international chorus of complaints about Pyongyang’s planned provocation, however, has to do with the way in which the launch seems likely to extinguish the slim hope for progress raised by the so-called “Leap Day Agreement” of Februpursuant to which the United States said congenial things about the DPRK and committed to providing thousands of tons of food assistance to that dysfunctional country in return for Pyongyang’s agreement to freeze nuclear work at Yongbyon and allow International Atomic Energy Agency ( IAEA) inspectors to return to that facility. These are not, in other words, penny ante stakes.Īll of this provides good reason both to applaud international efforts to press the DPRK to call off its provocative launch and to support the imposition of additional pressures against North Korea if it insists upon launching. Particularly in the wake of what are widely believed to have been partial or complete launch failures with “Kwangmyongsong?1” in 1998 and “Kwangmyongsong?2” in 2009, a genuinely successful “satellite” launch in 2012 could mean that North Korea can now threaten us and our allies with nuclear attack. As did North Korea’s two prior attempts, this so-called “satellite launch” relies upon technology that is indistinguishable from that used in long-range ballistic missiles. Pyongyang has long had at least some nuclear weapons, but it has probably hitherto been unable to deliver these devices over long distances. The launch would be far more than a violation of the DPRK’s obligations: it presents a considerable threat to North Korea’s neighbors, and indeed to countries much farther afield including the United States. Significantly, however, this is not just a lawyer’s gripe. The planned DPRK launch is indeed a great provocation, and would clearly violate North Korea’s obligations under international law specifically, under various United Nations Security Council Resolutions (e.g., UNSCR 1874 of June 2009) creating legally-binding no-testing obligations pursuant to Chapter VII of the U.N. Nevertheless, unless somebody changes course, the DPRK will go ahead with the launch of its so-called “Kwangmyongsong?3” satellite in the next few days. effort to impose tougher United Nations sanctions afterwards.Īt the moment, it is still possible that some way will be found to defuse the crisis, perhaps by having some satellite launch provider (e.g., China) ride flamboyantly to the rescue by volunteering to launch Pyongyang’s “satellite” for it, thus providing a face-saving way for the DPRK to back down.
As if that weren’t enough, South Korean observers apparently suspect the DPRK to be readying a new nuclear weapons test as well, perhaps preparing for a dramatic show of indignation at our indignation over the launch, or in response to the all but inevitable U.S. North Korea) proceeds on track to carry out what it calls a “satellite launch” currently scheduled to take place at some point between April 12 and 16, allegedly in celebration of the 100th anniversary of the birth of the impoverished and tyrannical northern dictatorship’s founder Kim Il-sung.
Leap Day 'Agreement'Īt the time I write this, the Korean Peninsula is heading for another round of acrimony and tension as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ( DPRK, a.k.a.
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