Developed market data encompasses the U.S., U.K., Japan, Canada, and Euro area. The misery index displays the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. Source: Haver Analytics, Arthur Okun, and PIMCO calculations as of September 2022. However, one thing we feel certain about: Borrowing from Arthur Okun’s misery index (created in the 1960s), which adds up inflation and unemployment rates to characterize economic performance, misery is increasing for central banks and policymakers (see Figure 1). As a result, although we discussed point forecasts for growth and inflation, we agreed that the range of possible outcomes was particularly wide. We discuss the case for bonds – and review other assets – in the investment implications, further below.Īs we worked toward these and other conclusions, we reminded ourselves of the concept of radical uncertainty, where uncertainty can’t be quantified by statistical distributions or probability-weighted average outcomes, but rather is unmeasurable and represents unknowable unknowns (see, for example, “ King, Keynes and Knight: Insights Into an Uncertain Economy,” July 2016). Investors can potentially earn higher income while pursuing resilience amid market volatility. We see this as a time for caution and flexibility in portfolios, and yet higher yields are adding to the attractiveness of bonds. Central banks are in a miserable position, having to address inflation while growth is already at risk. We concluded that a recession is likely to strike across developed markets and that elevated inflation is likely to stick around. We discussed these and other factors at length at our Cyclical Forum in September in Newport Beach. Geopolitical tensions, elevated market volatility, and the fastest pace of central bank tightening in decades are meaningful economic headwinds contributing to an unusually uncertain environment. This is a critical time for investors and policymakers alike. We also anticipate the more typical negative correlations between high quality bonds and equities will reassert themselves, thus improving the hedging and diversifying characteristics of core bond allocations. ♦We see downside risk for global equity markets, given starting valuations and earnings expectations that may not account for ongoing central bank tightening and increased recession risk.The gap between private and public asset valuations remains wide, but as private markets adjust and challenges become apparent across the corporate credit and real estate space, we expect to target a range of attractive opportunities. ♦In credit markets, we will seek to achieve a balance between near-term caution given the uncertainty and recession risks and a long-term focus on high quality, resilient assets.We will look to maintain portfolios designed to be resilient across a range of economic, geopolitical, and market outcomes, and to be liquidity providers during periods of greater market stress. ♦The return potential in bond markets appears compelling given higher yields across maturities.Central bankers appear squarely focused on bringing inflation down. ♦Our baseline cyclical forecast includes shallow recessions and rising unemployment across large developed markets, with growth unlikely to bounce back quickly.Should anyone requiring special assistance due to a disability wish to participate in this public hearing, please contact LADOTD JOINT TRANSPORTATION, HIGHWAYS & PUBLIC WORKS COMMITTEE Written statements and comments should be handed to the committee conducting the Hearing or mailed to the following address postmarked within 45 calendar days following the Hearing: All interested parties will be able to listen to the meeting by ZOOM. The ZOOM information will be posted online at the above link or (click here) prior to the hearing. Oral testimony may be supplemented by presenting important facts and documentation in writing.
LaDOTD/Divisions/Multimodal/ Transportation_Planning/ Highway_Priority/Pages/ default.aspxĪll interested persons are invited for the purpose of becoming fully acquainted with the proposed program and will be afforded an opportunity to express their views in person. A copy of the Preliminary Program for Fiscal Year 2023-2024 will be available for review on October 1, 2022, by interested persons at the LADOTD Headquarters Building, 1201 Capitol Access Road, Room 200U, Baton Rouge, LA 70802 or online (click here) or type the following in your browser: The purpose of the hearings is to review highway construction priorities for the fiscal year 2023-2024. Below is a list of the times and places where the hearings will be held. 48:231 and conducted by the Joint Transportation, Highways and Public Works Committee.
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A series of Public Hearings will be held in accordance with LA R.S.
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